The Main Event is the Senate Race – But Not the One Between Murray and Rossi

It’s the One for Control of State Senate – Battle of the Suburbs and Spokaloo

The state Senate -- where the action is.

By Erik Smith

Staff writer/ Washington State Wire

OLYMPIA, Sept. 7.—Labor Day is over and that means it’s finally safe for Washington voters to begin paying attention to the biggest political race in the state. It’s the Senate race, of course.

            But it’s not that little contest you may have heard about between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi. It’s the one for control of the state Senate.

            Seems like that U.S. Senate race gets all the attention. Three-term incumbent Murray faces a stiff challenge from Republican Dino Rossi; the race will attract millions and millions of dollars in campaign spending, and there will be so much TV advertising next month that the poor car dealers and waterbed merchants will be squeezed off the air. But the script is being written and financed by people 3,000 miles away, and the race appears likely to be decided by whatever wind appears to be blowing from Washington, D.C. once the ballots start showing up in mailboxes.

            The other Senate race? That’s a different matter, a contest that will be decided entirely by people in this Washington, in which candidates and campaigns get to choose their own messages without help from handlers. That one’s a nail-biter.

            It’s the battle of the suburbs and Spokaloo. Washington State Wire talked to the team captains and offers a rundown.

            As Many as Nine Races in Play

            State Sen. Mark Schoesler, R-Ritzville, says the picture is clear. “If the money is there, we’ll have the majority,” he said.

            It’s a big promise. Democrats right now hold the majority by a wide margin, 31-18. To win the actual majority in the state Senate, Republicans would have to pick up seven seats – and those are tough odds.

            There were seven Senate races in the primary in which the Democratic vote was less than 50 percent or in the low to mid-50s. In two other races in Snohomish County, vicious attacks by the state Labor Council and activist groups against Democratic incumbents have muddied the waters so badly it's hard to get a read on the numbers. Yet for Republicans to win actual control, they’d have to do pretty much everything right and the Democrats would have to bungle pretty much the entire job.

            On the other hand, a shift of just a few seats to the Republican side sets up an interesting dynamic. There are a few Senate Democrats who sometimes side with Republicans on budget and tax matters, not because their party’s numbers allow them to do so, but because they’ve always taken a conservative line. Chief among them are Tim Sheldon of Hoodsport and occasionally Jim Hargrove of Hoquiam.

            If Republicans pick up five seats, that assures a change in the tone of the Senate. Three or four and it still makes a difference. With a $3 billion shortfall looming next year, and an inevitable debate over big cuts to state programs versus enormous tax increases – that makes the Senate the central battlefield of the Legislature.

            For the record, there don’t appear to be any threatened Republicans in the state Senate. Over in the House there are a few Democrats in trouble as well – Ways and Means Chairwoman Kelli Linville of Bellingham, Tim Probst of Vancouver, Geoff Simpson of Covington, Dawn Morrell of Puyallup. But the House is so firmly in Democratic hands, 61-37, that the election is unlikely to change matters much in the lower chamber.

            The Suburbs and Spokane

            Just going by the numbers, Republicans can practically bank on picking up two seats, Schoesler said. They’re in southeast King County, where Claudia Kauffman of Kent had a dismal 44.3 percent against Republican Joe Fain, and in Spokane, where Chris Marr had 46.7 percent against Republican Michael Baumgartner. Certainly results can change in the general election, Schoesler said, but rarely does a wounded incumbent come back from more than a three-point deficit. 

            Also finishing below 50 percent were Eric Oemig of Kirkland, who scored 48.5 percent against Republican Andy Hill, and Randy Gordon of Bellevue, who got 49.9 percent against Republican Steve Litzow.

            And then there are the Dems who appear to be squeaking through, but might be vulnerable if enough resources are brought to bear. There’s Tracy Eide, who got just under 51 percent against Republican Tony Moore. Rodney Tom, a party-switcher from Bellevue who voted with the Republicans this year against tax increases, still got only 52.6 percent against Republican Gregg Bennett.

            That’s six so far. Republicans have traditionally counted Democrat Derek Kilmer of Gig Harbor as vulnerable – though he finished reasonably strongly in the primary, with 56 percent against two challengers. He faces Republican Marty McClendon in November.

            But then come the Snohomish County races in which the public-employee unions and activist groups set out to teach the Dems a lesson – and managed to throw everything in doubt.

            In the 44^th District, incumbent Steve Hobbs was wounded by the attack mailers from the left and won just 35.8 percent of the vote, and the total Democratic vote was only 50 percent. The primary set up a rematch against Republican Dave Schmidt, whom Hobbs knocked out of office last time. After all the attacks on Hobbs, he now has to count on Democrats from the left to rally to his support.

            And while the Everett-based 38^th doesn't make the GOP hot list, it is a total question mark. Incumbent Jean Berkey was knocked out in the primary, and the candidate with Labor Council backing, Nick Harper, made it through. Rod Rieger, the self-described “conservative” candidate who will appear on the November ballot, may benefit from a backlash -- especially if Republicans decide to support his campaign. Meanwhile, a phony Republican mailer from the left, a possible violation of state campaign laws, has prompted Berkey to file a complaint and threaten litigation to force a special election. The courts may have as much say in this race as the voters.

            Will Make it Through, Say Dems

            “I know what they’ve been saying,” said Sen. Karen Keiser of Kent, chairwoman of the Senate Democratic Caucus Campaign Committee. “They’re wrong, they’re not going to take the majority, but I understand why they would say that.”

            For the GOP to make a sweep of all the close races there would have to be a gale-force wind from Washington, D.C., of the sort that swept them into power nationwide in 1994. But that doesn’t appear likely this year, Keiser said – no matter how much Republicans might wish, it doesn’t look like the election will be a referendum on Obama.

The fact that so many Democrats appear to be in trouble has more to do with the fact that so many of them are on the ballot this year, she said. Of the 25 Senate seats up for election this year, 19 are held by Democrats.

            Democrats are trying to bolster their chances with a strong get-out-the-vote effort, targeting Democratic voters who don’t regularly vote in non-presidential races. And Keiser said she wouldn’t read too much into the primary numbers.

            For instance, in Spokane, where Marr’s numbers were a bit of a surprise, she admits, there was a heavy conservative vote for Clint Didier in the race for U.S. Senate, and the tea partier may have pulled Baumgartner along. Didier was knocked out; he won’t be a factor in November. Meanwhile, new members like Randy Gordon, appointed to his seat in January, are naturally going to have a tough time of it in their first serious race.

            Not that anyone on the Dem side is counting on an easy time of it. “It does have us concerned,” she said. “There was a pretty poor performance by some of our key Democratic votes.