Second Poll Shows Income Tax Measure a Tie, McKenna a Front-Runner for 2012

I-1098 is 41-41, Murray-Rossi 49-46, Says Public Policy Polling

By Erik Smith

Staff writer/ Washington State Wire

OLYMPIA, Aug. 5.—The second poll in a row puts this year’s income-tax initiative as a dead-even tie before the campaigning really begins.

            The new poll, from the Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling, indicates that Initiative 1098 is coming into the home stretch of the election season without an advantage. The measure is a 41-41 tossup, it says, with 18 percent undecided.

            It’s not the first poll to call it even – local pollster Stuart Elway said the same thing after a survey in June – and it shows the measure will have an uphill battle after the Labor Day weekend. The ads and campaign mailings traditionally begin in earnest after that point, and a negative campaign often whittles away at a ballot proposition’s support.

            In other key results, the poll shows:

n      U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., is only slightly ahead of Republican challenger Dino Rossi. The numbers show her with a 49-46 advantage in a head-to-head contest. While the numerous polls conducted in the race have either shown it as a tie or have given Murray a slight lead, all of them have shown Murray with less than 50 percent support – an uneasy position for any sitting politician before the ads are unleashed. Since the poll was conducted, Murray has begun her first salvo – a barrage on Rossi, even before the August primary confirms that he will be her opponent.

n      Attorney General Rob McKenna is clearly a front-runner in the race for governor in 2012. The poll is the first to test the waters for the upcoming gubernatorial race. It tested the Republican against one of the possible Democratic challengers, Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown of Spokane. That poll gave McKenna the victory in that far-off matchup, 47-29. At this stage a question of that type is as much a measure of name recognition as anything else – neither have even announced for the race. McKenna has run two statewide races and Brown has run none. But the measure showed that McKenna has strong support among Republicans – 87 percent. Brown doesn’t do quite as well among Democrats – 60 percent. And among independents the preference for McKenna is enormous, 50-19. 

            The firm surveyed 1,204 Washington voters, and the margin of error was 2.8 percent.

            Income Tax Measure Dead-Even

            The polling firm hesitates to draw conclusions about I-1098’s chances, other than the fact that the race is going to be a hot one. The measure would impose a high-earner income tax in Washington state – one of the periodic attempts in this state since the Great Depression to impose an income tax. But this one is given a better chance by many, in part because because it affects only the wealthy – those making over $200,000 a year. That allows 100 percent of the voters to decide whether to tax three percent of the population. It also is backed by a coalition of labor groups and wealthy individuals that has proved its willingness to put up about $1 million so far for the campaign.

            In his blog, the firm’s Tom Jensen states:  

“My experience with most ballot initiatives is that few voters really understand them at this point in the game, so with 18 percent undecided and a whole lot of money left to be spent, this could change a lot between now and November. But it looks like it'll be competitive.”

The poll shows that 67 percent of Democrats support the measure and 60 percent of Republicans oppose it.

But it does show an interesting trend. All polls are not created equal, of course, but it is the fourth on the subject to be publicly released. And if you can trust them all, they show that the measure had a big burst of support when it was publicly announced, and then it started to flatline.

In April, Survey USA put it at 66-27. In May, the Washington Poll put it at 58-30. In June, Stuart Elway put it at 46-46. The new poll, conducted from July 27 to Aug. 1, again shows a tie at 41-41.

            Sandeep Kaushik, spokesman for the I-1098 campaign, said it’s hard to read much into those numbers three months in advance of the general election.

            “Whenever people ask me about poll results this far out from the election, I always say you have to take them with a grain of salt,” he said. “That said, it shows that I-1098 is going to be a close race. We’re pleased that we have a strong base of support already, and we think we are positioned very well.”